UlstermanAbroad
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If you scroll back through Dr Armstrong's videos, you'll see that he explains this in most of his early videos especially. I posted his daily video here on page 22 or 23 ish.
From memory (don't quote me) there are three important variables. Transmission rate or the Ro number, the percentage lethality and where you are on the risk spectrum.
The R nought number for COVID19 is similar (so far) to that of the 1917/18 Spanish Flu pandemic. This means that a very large percentage of the population is going to contract the virus. Especially given the way we are much much more mobile now, than we were a century ago.
Yes, the percentage of lethality averages around 2%. But when you calculate say, 2% of the 66 million UK population this is roughly one and a third million deaths. Obviously not everyone will become infected. BUT, if you fall into one of the high risk groups, then the mortality rate goes up considerably. For those over 60 ish and those with suppressed immune systems, I think the death rate was quoted a week or so ago, as about 10% or higher.
Given that our hospitals are in many instances barely coping right now, with normal demands.
So the A&Es aren't swamped and every hospital becomes a massive petri dish, I suspect that those with symptoms will be told to self quarantine.
If you're in a high risk group and you need intensive care, you're probably not going to get it.
The elderly are economically inactive anyway, so the government isn't going to expend many resources to try to keep them alive.
The government will be forced to implement a triage system, but outside health facilities (not inside) and are probably preparing, not to battle the spread of the virus in any meaningful way, but to dispose of all the extra bodies quickly, before other pandemics are created.
If you go to YouTube and search for John or Dr Armstrong and watch a few of his videos, you'll very quickly know as much as any other member of the public about this pandemic.
We ARE in a pandemic situation. The WHO and governments are playing with words so as not to alarm their citizens, otherwise in many countries there'd be a rolling breakdown of law and order.
My memory of all the things John Armstrong said is sketchy, because I'm in a high risk group (suppressed immunity) and focused on myself.
I just know that I've heard quite enough by now, to decide to be able to self quarantine, if need be. I'll be doing a big shop of non-perishables and everything else needed, tomorrow. I would've done it yesterday, but the Rangy was with my mechanic.
Bottom line. If you were in government, what would you do. Faced with a rapidly spreading virus, with a known kill rate. Force as many infected to self quarantine, as possible and preserve most of your police and armed forces, as well as medical facilities, or? There is no, or? The above is the only way to deal with this.
It's what every other country with significant outbreaks is reportedly doing.
From memory (don't quote me) there are three important variables. Transmission rate or the Ro number, the percentage lethality and where you are on the risk spectrum.
The R nought number for COVID19 is similar (so far) to that of the 1917/18 Spanish Flu pandemic. This means that a very large percentage of the population is going to contract the virus. Especially given the way we are much much more mobile now, than we were a century ago.
Yes, the percentage of lethality averages around 2%. But when you calculate say, 2% of the 66 million UK population this is roughly one and a third million deaths. Obviously not everyone will become infected. BUT, if you fall into one of the high risk groups, then the mortality rate goes up considerably. For those over 60 ish and those with suppressed immune systems, I think the death rate was quoted a week or so ago, as about 10% or higher.
Given that our hospitals are in many instances barely coping right now, with normal demands.
So the A&Es aren't swamped and every hospital becomes a massive petri dish, I suspect that those with symptoms will be told to self quarantine.
If you're in a high risk group and you need intensive care, you're probably not going to get it.
The elderly are economically inactive anyway, so the government isn't going to expend many resources to try to keep them alive.
The government will be forced to implement a triage system, but outside health facilities (not inside) and are probably preparing, not to battle the spread of the virus in any meaningful way, but to dispose of all the extra bodies quickly, before other pandemics are created.
If you go to YouTube and search for John or Dr Armstrong and watch a few of his videos, you'll very quickly know as much as any other member of the public about this pandemic.
We ARE in a pandemic situation. The WHO and governments are playing with words so as not to alarm their citizens, otherwise in many countries there'd be a rolling breakdown of law and order.
My memory of all the things John Armstrong said is sketchy, because I'm in a high risk group (suppressed immunity) and focused on myself.
I just know that I've heard quite enough by now, to decide to be able to self quarantine, if need be. I'll be doing a big shop of non-perishables and everything else needed, tomorrow. I would've done it yesterday, but the Rangy was with my mechanic.
Bottom line. If you were in government, what would you do. Faced with a rapidly spreading virus, with a known kill rate. Force as many infected to self quarantine, as possible and preserve most of your police and armed forces, as well as medical facilities, or? There is no, or? The above is the only way to deal with this.
It's what every other country with significant outbreaks is reportedly doing.
