UlstermanAbroad
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The map is just for illustrative purposes. Russian troop numbers on the border with Ukraine
are a multiple of what is shown here.
We only import about 2% of our energy requirements as gas from Russia. Germany imports about 60%.
Tonight the UK is flying anti-tank missiles and training teams to Ukraine but the Germans and French
refused us permission to transit their airspace. Our NATO allies refused us permission to fly through
their airspace.
I haven't been following developments in Ukraine as closely as I'd usually do. However, knowing Putin's
background. Considering the annexation of Crimea and the build-up of Russian forces on Ukraine's border
as well as the composition of those forces. If I had to bet. I'd guestimate that it's 70/30 that the Russians
will invade within the next seven days. Preceded by a major cyber attack on the country's infrastructure.
Especially it's communications. This is taking place already. And possibly preceded by a calculated incident
upon which to justify invasion.
The West has already indicated that it will not respond militarily. I believe the high gas prices ensure that
Russia can afford the cost of the war as well as the increased economic sanctions that will follow.
I believe that the decision has already been taken to invade. Subject to achievement of the asymmetric
goals necessary to widen the divisions within NATO, knock out targeted infrastructure and provide the
casus bellie for invasion. According to the Ukrainian Ambassador in London tonight, Russian forces now almost
surround Ukraine, from Belarus to the Crimea.
I also predict a run on toilet rolls. Especially in Whitehall, Northwood and Downing Street